Gold Rates in Pakistan Ease to Rs410,000 as Global Gold Falls Below $4,000 on Fed Hike Bets

Gold rates in Pakistan eased Rs8,000 per tola over the past week to close Saturday at Rs410,000, a fall of 1.91%. The net figure hides a reversal: the local rate climbed through Wednesday to Rs422,700, then gave back more than all of those gains over the last three sessions as international gold broke below $4,000 and hit its lowest level of 2026. Saturday's close is also the lowest local rate of the past 30 trading days.

How the Week Unfolded

International gold opened the week just under $4,000 an ounce, close to where it had finished the previous Friday. The early sessions were firm rather than eventful. On Tuesday, higher oil prices revived inflation concerns tied to renewed fighting in the Middle East, and gold gained roughly 1% heading into the Federal Reserve meeting.

Wednesday brought the Fed decision. The committee held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, but the vote was split 10–2, with both dissenters favouring an immediate hike. The statement said inflation "remains elevated", and Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters the Fed stood ready to act. He also announced fewer rate-setting meetings next year, with the next decision on 9 December. Markets had gone into the meeting pricing roughly an 82% chance of a December hike, and little in the outcome changed that. Spot gold was quoted about 0.5% lower at $4,039 after the decision, though it recovered late on Wednesday to the week's high near $4,083.

Thursday's data added to the pressure. The advance estimate of US third-quarter growth came in at an annualised 3.4%, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.5% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.6%, while core PCE held at 3.1% as expected. Weekly jobless claims of 194,000 pointed to a labour market still too firm to ease anything. Spot gold slipped about 1% towards $4,025 in the morning, and USAGOLD noted that the growth beat kept a December hike in play.

Friday was the decisive session. Gold fell more than 3% in a single day. December futures settled $132.50 lower at $3,898.90, a 52-week low, while spot dropped to around $3,876, according to Trading Economics, with the session low near $3,871 coming in the final hour of US trading. The selloff came alongside a broader risk-off mood after Alphabet's slide on Thursday and disappointing results from Intel and Amazon. USAGOLD described it as forced, liquidity-driven selling, pointing out that gold fell even though yields were lower and the dollar softer, conditions that would normally support it.

That left gold down close to 3% on the week and about 30% below January's record near $5,595. Other metals fared worse: silver ended Friday at $49.28 after a near-6% one-day drop, and silver, platinum and palladium lost between 7% and 9% over the week.

Gold Rates in Pakistan This Week

Local closing rates for 24-karat gold per tola:

• Monday, 26 October: Rs419,000
• Tuesday, 27 October: Rs419,500
• Wednesday, 28 October: Rs422,700
• Thursday, 29 October: Rs421,000
• Friday, 30 October: Rs417,500
• Saturday, 31 October: Rs410,000

The local pattern tracks the international one with a one-day lag, which is what the Saturday timing effect predicts this week. Wednesday's Rs3,200 rise to the week's high of Rs422,700 reflected Tuesday's oil-driven gain abroad. Friday's Rs3,500 decline followed Thursday's slide after the US growth data. Saturday's Rs7,500 drop, the largest single move of the week, captured Friday's global slump, which happened after Friday's local benchmark had already been set.

From the high, the rate fell Rs12,700 in three sessions to finish at the week's low. Against the previous Saturday's Rs418,000, the 1 tola gold price in Pakistan ended Rs8,000 lower at Rs410,000, a decline of 1.91%. Per 10 grams, 24-karat gold closed at Rs351,515.

The local fall was smaller than the global one, under 2% against nearly 3%. Part of the gap may be timing: Friday's lowest prices came in the last hour of US trading, so Saturday's local rate may not have fully reflected them. The rupee may also have played a part. With the figures available, the exact cause isn't clear.

For wider context, October as a whole took the rate down Rs30,400, or 6.90%, from Rs440,400 on 1 October. The local rate is now Rs31,000 below its 30-trading-day high of Rs441,000, set on 30 September.

Where the Market Stands

Analysts are now focused on whether gold can recover the $4,000 level. Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper had flagged $3,886 as support, warning that a sustained break could open a deeper correction. Friday's spot close sat just below that level, while futures settled just above it, so the level remains in question.

Longer-term forecasts have not collapsed. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts put median forecasts at $4,495 for 2026 and $4,650 for 2027, though analysts have been trimming their numbers, citing softer demand, high Treasury yields and a firm dollar. That keeps the near-term picture driven by rate expectations rather than by any change in the longer-term case.

Outlook

The coming week is busy, and most of it bears directly on the December rate decision.

• Monday, 2 November: The ISM manufacturing survey, forecast at 54.7. Its prices-paid component, at 77.9 in September, will be watched for inflation pressure.
• Tuesday, 3 November: JOLTS job openings and the US midterm elections, which could add volatility across markets.
• Wednesday, 4 November: The ADP employment report and the ISM services survey.
• Thursday, 5 November: Weekly jobless claims and a speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. The Bank of England, also expected to hike by 25 basis points, is due to decide during the week.
• Friday, 6 November: October nonfarm payrolls, with consensus near 56,000 after September's 29,000 and unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%.

Payrolls matter most. A strong report with firmer wage growth would reinforce December hike expectations, which have weighed on gold all month. A weak one would ease that pressure and could help gold recover $4,000. Because US data lands in the Pakistani evening, Friday's reaction is likely to show up in Saturday's local rate rather than Friday's. Anyone tracking the live gold rate in Pakistan should expect the bigger moves late in the week.

Note: Local rates are sourced from the Karachi Sarafa benchmark and are indicative. They may vary slightly between cities and jewellers, and exclude making charges. Always confirm the current rate before buying or selling.